Ford engine (F) publishes its results on Tuesday evening for a fourth quarter marked by the auto workers' strike. Japanese rival Toyota engine (TM) forecast a record profit on Tuesday, driven by gas-electric hybrid vehicles. Ford stock pushed Toyota stock higher Tuesday afternoon.
Estimates: Analysts on average expect earnings per share to fall 73% to 12 cents, according to FactSet. Revenue is expected to fall 2% year over year, to $43.062 billion.
That would mark Ford's first profit decline in five quarters and its first sales decline in seven quarters.
Results: Come back after closing.
Outlook: Ford is expected to share its earnings and free cash flow forecasts for 2024. Rival GM provided a bullish outlook on January 30.
Analysts expect Ford's full-year forecast for adjusted EBIT to reach $9.650 billion, according to FactSet. This would be down from the estimated $10.355 billion in 2023.
Analysts forecast free cash flow of $2.494 billion, down from the estimated $4.396 billion in 2023.
Ford Stock Performance
Shares of Ford Motor rose 3.2% on the stock market today. Ford stock encountered resistance at its 200-day moving average after regaining the 50-day line in late January. A move back above the 200-day line could mark an early entry for risk-tolerant investors.
GM and STLA shares posted gains of around 2% on Tuesday. Stellantis reports the fourth quarter on February 15.
Toyota shares climbed more than 8% after the Japanese automaker forecast record net profit of $30.3 billion for the fiscal year ending in March, driven by rising global sales of hybrid vehicles. The move put Toyota stock nearly 14% above a 194.43 buy point after a January breakout.
Tesla stock saw a modest rebound on Tuesday, still near its lowest level in several months.
Hybrid electric vehicles are increasing, battery electric vehicles are slowing down
Traditional automakers continue to scale back their big bets on “pure” or battery electric vehicles (BEV). They report growing demand for hybrid vehicles, while industry-wide BEV sales growth has slowed.
In January, Ford's hybrid electric vehicle sales continued to drive overall new vehicle sales, continuing the momentum seen in the final quarter of 2023.
Amid record hybrid sales, Ford's 2023 sales totaled 1,995,912 vehicles, up 7% from 2022 and the best since 2020, capped by a slight gain in the fourth quarter despite the strike. Combustion vehicles still represented 90% of total sales in 2023.
Although many customers want to buy BEVs, they are not willing to pay more than gasoline or hybrid vehicles, industry observers say. This hurt BEV pricing and profitability, Ford said.
GM is now bringing back hybrid vehicles, ending its previous quest for fully electric vehicles.
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